Joseph Todaro, the managing partner at Blocktown Capital, recently argued that the “bull case for Ether is starting to look good.” Significantly, the Ethereum blockchain is achieving the following, at present:
- averaging $500 million in daily transactions
- 600k total daily transactions
- “1/3 reduction in issuance Q1” – according to Todaro
- “ETH locked up keeps growing” – for example, Dai
- Ether is due for a correction as it’s now down 92% for the year
- Has received terrible press (good reason to be bullish according to Todaro)
- “basically anything of interest is built on ETH” – Todaro
While Todaro absolutely does have a point about almost all useful/legitimate apps having been developed on Ethereum (except for a few that have been developed on NEO, e.g. APEX, AlphaCat), this still does not present a case to be bullish about Ethereum.
Not Really A Case (Yet) To Be Bullish About Ether
That’s because the upcoming upgrades will determine whether Ethereum will or will not succeed. In September, Ethereum’s developers had promised to deliver the following upgrades (by November 2018):
- EIP 145 – cheaper and more efficient approach to processing data
- EIP 1014: related to adapting to network scaling solutions (e.g off-chain transactions)
- EIP 1052 – touted improvement on better smart contract processing
- EIP1234 – delaying of difficulty bomb by 1 year; reducing mining rewards from 3 ETH to 2 ETH
- EIP 1283 – improved monetization of data storage changes
Earlier in mid-August 2018, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin himself basically admitted that he habitually goes off on tangents. The Russian-Canadian programmer made a “tweet storm“, which one Twitter user aptly described as the longest confession that the more competent developer Vlad Zamfir had been right about scaling Ethereum all along.
Serenity? Constantinople? Ethereum 1x, Verbose Coindesk Articles = Confusion
Now, it gets even better. Recently, the Ethereum development team has said it will take until 2020 before the highly overdue Ethereum 2.0 upgrade can be activated. Also, in a rather verbose as usual post on Coindesk, a handful of Ethereum developers described how they would initiate this seemingly strange upgrade called Ethereum 1x.
Although it is always easier to be critical when you’re not actually doing the work yourself, things actually do sound like a bit of a mess when you constantly keep referring to your upgrades with different names.
For example, first it was “Constantinople” (this year), then “Serenity”, then Ethereum 1x, etc, etc. Is this being done to purposely confuse people, so that they don’t become even more critical than they are already about Ethereum’s inability to scale?
Ethereum Is Still The Best Bet For A DApp Platform
As much as Dr. Roubini may be ill-informed about Crypto, he does have a point. That being, Ethereum’s developers have been at it since 2013, and we haven’t seen real, applicable results.
However, realistically speaking, paradigm changing technologies do take time to fully develop and mature. As Dr. Neha Narula, the director of the Media Lab’s Digital Currency Initiative, has said, blockchain technology is still like late 1970s internet – right before the introduction of the the TCP/IP protocol.
So, more than likely, Ethereum will eventually be able to scale and it does, to be fair, stand a better chance at succeeding than most of the other decentralized network protocols for building smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps).
The reason for this is simple. Ethereum has the first mover’s advantage, network effect (both technical and professional), and the backing of arguably the most skilled blockchain developers, right behind Bitcoin (BTC) developers.